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An Insider's View with Daphna Levit

Revival of the fittest

 It is 2009 and from an economic perspective, it is good that 2008 is over.

 To recover completely from many of the devastating effects of the past year, it would help if some responsibility were taken for its major failures and assurances were made that the mistakes are understood.

 In the special holiday double issue of The Economist, Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the federal reserve for two decades, calculates that the government credit extended to American banks is helpful but must be temporary (how very Keynesian!). He must think we need to know that governments cannot forever support the banks in a capitalist system.

 What will revive the financial markets, he insists, is the partial restoration of the $30 trillion lost in global stockmarkets (what a great idea!). He thinks that fear (why would they be afraid, I wonder) is keeping investors out of the markets and, knowing "human nature," practically reassures us of a market reversal within six months to a year.

 This forecast is welcome, if it can be trusted. But trust was certainly tested by the turmoil of 2008 and most particularly by the legacy of this staunch supporter of deregulation and free markets. I was hoping for some contrition for mistakes made during his stewardship, but none was forthcoming.

 I suppose George Bush will also be reluctant to apologize for the worst economic deterioration in U.S. history, according to such indicators as budget deficits, trade deficits, unemployment, inflation, medical and educational programs, infrastructure, mortgage lending or consumer debt. And the costs of the war in Iraq, estimated to reach $3 trillion, and the war in Afghanistan have not yet been fully processed.

 Linda J. Bilmes and Joseph E. Stiglitz are co-authors of the book "The Three Trillion Dollar War: The True Cost of the Iraq Conflict." In their most recently co-authored article, "The $10 Trillion Hangover" in the January 2009 issue of Harper's, they claim that the worst legacy of the eight Bush years is that most Americans are worse off than they were in 2001. Between 2002 and 2006 only the wealthiest 10 per cent of households saw more than 95 per cent of the gains in income.

 Here is the most shocking calculation in this article: "… the nation's 15,000 richest families doubled their annual income from $15 million to $30 million …" while the bottom 50 per cent saw their share of national income decline and the value of their assets wither with falling house prices and collapsing stock markets, in a period that corporate profit rose 68 per cent or more than five times the growth in the overall economy.

 Let's hope that responsible leadership and wiser governance prevail in 2009.

 Daphna Levit was an international equity analyst at Merrill Lynch in Tokyo, vice-president at Morgan Stanley in London and senior vice-president at Barings Securities in New York.

  When she retired from the active markets, she went on to teach finance and economics to MBA students. She now lives near Lunenburg.

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posted on 01/06/09
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